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A quarterly post-Second World War real GDP series for New Zealand

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  • Viv B. Hall
  • C. John McDermott

Abstract

There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand, for the period prior to 1977. We report the development of a seasonally-adjusted series for a period of more than 60 years from mid-1947, and evaluate statistical properties. The series were developed by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three static econometric models with different disturbance term assumptions and one dynamic model are evaluated. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow and Lin (1971) model. We assess movements in the preferred static model and dynamic model series against qualitative findings from New Zealand's post-Second World War economic history.

Suggested Citation

  • Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2011. "A quarterly post-Second World War real GDP series for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 273-298, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:45:y:2011:i:3:p:273-298
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2011.576649
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julius Shiskin, 1961. "Signals of Recession and Recovery: An Experiment with Monthly Reporting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number shis61-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    3. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    4. Nicholas Sander, 2013. "Migration and the housing market," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    6. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 343-361, September.
    7. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Jed Armstrong & Günes Kamber & Özer Karagedikli, 2016. "Developing a labour utilisation composite index for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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