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Will the Northern Sea Route ever be a viable alternative?

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  • Jeroen F.J. Pruyn

Abstract

Since the decline in sea ice north of Russia became clear in the early 1990s, ideas of using the northern route for sea transport between Europe and Asia have taken a hold of the shipping community. Large and small research projects with varying complexity and results have looked into this option. In this article, the available information is studied in detail and four scenarios for the costs and durations of passage are studied to see if dry bulk transport via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) might be viable in any future. The conclusions are that due to the extra days spent waiting or slow steaming, as well as the extra costs involved, this route is a very unlikely alternative to the conventional Suez route.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen F.J. Pruyn, 2016. "Will the Northern Sea Route ever be a viable alternative?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 661-675, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:43:y:2016:i:6:p:661-675
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2015.1131864
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    Cited by:

    1. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    2. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Haider, Jane, 2019. "Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 111-135.
    3. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Fuzzy-based decision analysis on Arctic transportation: A guidance for freight shipping companies," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Adapting to the Future: Maritime and City Logistics in the Context of Digitalization and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conf, volume 32, pages 375-400, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    4. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Development of a search and rescue framework for maritime freight shipping in the Arctic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 54-69.
    5. Xu, Hua & Yin, Zhifang, 2021. "The optimal icebreaking tariffs and the economic performance of tramp shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 76-97.
    6. Wang, Yangjun & Liu, Kefeng & Zhang, Ren & Qian, Longxia & Shan, Yulong, 2021. "Feasibility of the Northeast Passage: The role of vessel speed, route planning, and icebreaking assistance determined by sea-ice conditions for the container shipping market during 2020–2030," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Tomi Solakivi & Tuomas Kiiski & Lauri Ojala, 2019. "On the cost of ice: estimating the premium of Ice Class container vessels," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(2), pages 207-222, June.
    8. Sibul, Gleb & Jin, Jian Gang, 2021. "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 350-369.
    9. Dai, Lei & Jing, Danyue & Hu, Hao & Wang, Zhaojing, 2021. "An environmental and techno-economic analysis of transporting LNG via Arctic route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 56-71.

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