A longitudinal study of concern and judged risk: the case of Ebola in the United States, 2014–2015

Longitudinal studies of dynamics of concern and judged risk for hazards have been rare, but can offer fresh insights. Four of five surveys of an American panel over five months provided data to test the relationship of diverse factors with concern and judged risk for self/family, the nation, and the world regarding Ebola, both at baseline and in trends for individuals. The initial survey in early December 2014 followed by three weeks the second and last death from Ebola in the U.S., whereas media coverage peaked in October after the first such death; the last survey occurred in May 2015, when new cases in West Africa had nearly ceased. We measured several predictors of risk perception from the literature, including news following, dread of Ebola, ‘near-miss’ beliefs of an outbreak, cultural cognition worldviews, and uncertainty aversion. Trend analyses document that judgments of personal risk remained stable over this period, while concern, U.S. risk, and global risk declined. Time series multilevel modeling allowed intercepts and individual slopes of concern and risk judgments to vary. Significant predictors of risk judgments included following Ebola news, perceived likelihood of an outbreak, ‘near-miss’ beliefs, cultural cognition worldviews, and dread of Ebola. These findings both confirm prior associations (e.g. news attention) and suggest new ones (e.g. near-miss beliefs affecting concern) for factors affecting concern and judged risk, as well as illustrate the new insights generated when longitudinal studies include three or more observations of the same variables.