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Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

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  • Wanyun Shao

Abstract

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanyun Shao, 2016. "Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 722-742, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:19:y:2016:i:6:p:722-742
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2014.1003956
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Adedayo Ogunbode & Yue Liu & Nicole Tausch, 2017. "The moderating role of political affiliation in the link between flooding experience and preparedness to reduce energy use," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 445-458, December.
    2. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    3. Booth, Pamela & Walsh, Patrick J. & Stahlmann-Brown, Pike, 2020. "Drought Intensity, Future Expectations, and the Resilience of Climate Beliefs," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Wanyun Shao & Hamed Moftakhari & Hamid Moradkhani, 2020. "Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 317-335, November.
    5. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    6. Peter D. Howe, 2018. "Perceptions of seasonal weather are linked to beliefs about global climate change: evidence from Norway," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 467-480, June.
    7. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2022. "Drought exposure and accuracy: Motivated reasoning in climate change beliefs," Working Papers 2022.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    8. Wanyun Shao & Feng Hao, 2020. "Approval of political leaders can slant evaluation of political issues: evidence from public concern for climate change in the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 201-212, January.
    9. Roman Rudenko & Ivan Miguel Pires & Margarida Liberato & João Barroso & Arsénio Reis, 2022. "A Brief Review on 4D Weather Visualization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Jingwen Liu & Peng Zou & Yu Ma, 2022. "The Effect of Air Pollution on Food Preferences," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 410-423, March.
    11. Kristin B. Dobbin & Amanda L. Fencl & Gregory Pierce & Melissa Beresford & Silvia Gonzalez & Wendy Jepson, 2023. "Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their implications for adaptation: evidence from California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Elizabeth A Albright & Deserai Crow, 2019. "Beliefs about climate change in the aftermath of extreme flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Carley M. Eschliman & Emma Kuster & Joseph Ripberger & Adrienne M. Wootten, 2020. "Preparing to adapt: are public expectations in line with climate projections?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 851-871, November.
    14. Zeynep Altinay & Eric Rittmeyer & Lauren L. Morris & Margaret A. Reams, 2021. "Public risk salience of sea level rise in Louisiana, United States," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 523-536, December.
    15. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Dugan, 2022. "On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.

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