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Preparing to adapt: are public expectations in line with climate projections?

Author

Listed:
  • Carley M. Eschliman

    (National Weather Center Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program
    Cornell University)

  • Emma Kuster

    (South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center)

  • Joseph Ripberger

    (University of Oklahoma National Institute for Risk and Resilience)

  • Adrienne M. Wootten

    (South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center)

Abstract

In this study, we compare expressed public expectations of future climate with climate projections. Along with identifying general trends, we examine how demographic and ideological factors, as well as past weather experience, may affect these expectations individuals express. Through our analysis of a state-wide survey of Oklahomans in 2019, we find that Oklahomans, on average, expect a cooler, wetter future than most climate projections suggest. One’s future temperature expectations were significantly related to gender, age, political affiliation, and perceptions about recent temperatures. In particular, females, Democrats, Millennials, and those who thought the past 3 years were hotter than average were more likely to expect warmer futures. Meanwhile, precipitation expectations were significantly related to one’s recent drought and extreme rainfall experience, age, and race. Our results also suggest that expressed expectations of future temperatures are more likely to be influenced by ideological and demographic variables than expectations of future precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Carley M. Eschliman & Emma Kuster & Joseph Ripberger & Adrienne M. Wootten, 2020. "Preparing to adapt: are public expectations in line with climate projections?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 851-871, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02830-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02830-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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