IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jriskr/v16y2013i10p1297-1314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca Dell'Acqua
  • Francesca Russo
  • Salvatore Antonio Biancardo

Abstract

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700 km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Dell'Acqua & Francesca Russo & Salvatore Antonio Biancardo, 2013. "Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1297-1314, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:16:y:2013:i:10:p:1297-1314
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2013.788547
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13669877.2013.788547
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13669877.2013.788547?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Özlem Şimşekoğlu & Trond Nordfjærn & Torbjørn Rundmo, 2012. "Traffic risk perception, road safety attitudes, and behaviors among road users: a comparison of Turkey and Norway," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 787-800, August.
    2. Nilesh N. Joshi & James H. Lambert, 2011. "Diversification of infrastructure projects for emergent and unknown non-systematic risks," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 717-733, June.
    3. Dongo Rémi Kouabenan, 2002. "Occupation, driving experience, and risk and accident perception," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 49-68, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis, Royce & Bekera, Behailu, 2014. "A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 90-103.
    2. Laura N. Rickard, 2014. "Perception of Risk and the Attribution of Responsibility for Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 514-528, March.
    3. Daniela Knuth & Doris Kehl & Lynn Hulse & Silke Schmidt, 2014. "Risk Perception, Experience, and Objective Risk: A Cross‐National Study with European Emergency Survivors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1286-1298, July.
    4. Zain Ul-Abdin & Pieter De Winne & Hans De Backer, 2019. "Risk-Perception Formation Considering Tangible and Non-Tangible Aspects of Cycling: A Flemish Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Laura N. Rickard & Z. Janet Yang & Jonathon P. Schuldt & Gina M. Eosco & Clifford W. Scherer & Ricardo A. Daziano, 2017. "Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(12), pages 2334-2349, December.
    6. Thöns, Sebastian & Stewart, Mark G., 2019. "On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 574-583.
    7. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Daran Gray‐Scholz & Timothy J. Haney & Pamela MacQuarrie, 2019. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2543-2558, November.
    9. Shi-jie Jiang & Feiyun Xiang & Iris Yang, 2023. "Effect of Prevention Focus on the Relationships Among Driving Accident History, Risk Perception, and Consumers’ Automobile Insurance Coverage Decisions," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    10. Javadreza Vahedi & Afshin Shariat Mohaymany & Zahra Tabibi & Milad Mehdizadeh, 2018. "Aberrant Driving Behaviour, Risk Involvement, and Their Related Factors Among Taxi Drivers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Paul James, 2022. "Employer Toxic Leadership and Implications for Managing Risk and Stakeholder Management: a Road Improvement Project in Nepal," Enterprise Risk Management, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Aven, Terje, 2015. "Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 83-91.
    13. Marcos Vizcaíno-González & Susana Iglesias-Antelo & Noelia Romero-Castro, 2019. "Assessing Sustainability-Related Systematic Reputational Risk through Voting Results in Corporate Meetings: A Cross-Industry Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-11, March.
    14. Tianzheng Wei & Tong Zhu & Chenxin Li & Haoxue Liu, 2022. "Analysis of hazard perception characteristics based on driving behavior considering overt and covert hazard scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-19, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:16:y:2013:i:10:p:1297-1314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJRR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.