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Lead is like mercury: risk comparisons, analogies and mental models1

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  • Ann Bostrom

Abstract

This paper reviews evidence for the use of analogies and comparisons to understand risks and conflation of different risks, from mental model studies of lead paint hazard, global climate change and smallpox disease and vaccine. For each study participants use analogies with other risks explicitly, and often draw inferences based on their experiences or knowledge of those other risks. In the case of lead paint, study participants judged options for testing and mitigating lead paint by analogy with risks as diverse as radon and mercury, with corresponding differences in their assessments of proposed strategies. Mental models of smallpox disease and vaccine are often explicitly based on analogies with chickenpox, which is much more familiar to study participants. Many studies of climate change have demonstrated conflation of stratospheric ozone depletion with global warming from the greenhouse effect. Some study participants adopt other frames, such as weather, which affects their inferences in predictable ways. These findings are discussed in light of theories on the role of analogy and metaphor in thinking and inference. Taking into account the prevalence, structure and pitfalls of comparisons and analogies should help risk communication designers better realize their potential.

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  • Ann Bostrom, 2008. "Lead is like mercury: risk comparisons, analogies and mental models1," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1-2), pages 99-117, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:11:y:2008:i:1-2:p:99-117
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870701602956
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ann Bostrom & Ragnar E. Löfstedt, 2010. "Nanotechnology Risk Communication Past and Prologue," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(11), pages 1645-1662, November.
    2. Sophie Guy & Yoshihisa Kashima & Iain Walker & Saffron O’Neill, 2013. "Comparing the atmosphere to a bathtub: effectiveness of analogy for reasoning about accumulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 579-594, December.
    3. Whitney Fleming & Adam L. Hayes & Katherine M. Crosman & Ann Bostrom, 2021. "Indiscriminate, Irrelevant, and Sometimes Wrong: Causal Misconceptions about Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 157-178, January.
    4. Mark John Taylor & Emma Higgins & Hulya Francis, 2015. "A Systemic Approach to Multi-agency Community Safety," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 344-357, May.
    5. Rebecca Hess & Vivianne H.M. Visschers & Michael Siegrist & Carmen Keller, 2011. "How do people perceive graphical risk communication? The role of subjective numeracy," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 47-61, January.
    6. Maurie Cohen, 2011. "Is the UK preparing for “war”? Military metaphors, personal carbon allowances, and consumption rationing in historical perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 199-222, January.
    7. Heather Lazrus & Rebecca E. Morss & Julie L. Demuth & Jeffrey K. Lazo & Ann Bostrom, 2016. "“Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood”: Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 411-427, February.
    8. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & Carman, Katherine G. & Parker, Andrew M., 2021. "Mental associations with COVID-19 and how they relate with self-reported protective behaviors: A national survey in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).

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