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Forecasting real estate prices in Germany: the role of consumer confidence

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  • Philipp an de Meulen
  • Martin Micheli
  • Torsten Schmidt

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyse the forecasting ability of various potential predictors for real estate prices in Germany over the short term. In the wake of the financial crisis, real estate prices in Germany started to increase markedly and still did so by the end of 2013. Despite a number of fundamental reasons, e.g. favourable lending conditions and Germany's rapid return to economic growth, this provoked a discussion on whether consumers have too gloomy expectations regarding real estate prices in future. To capture the role of expectations for predicting real estate prices, in our forecast evaluation, we put special emphasis on various components of consumer confidence. Using single indicator models, we find that households' perceived financial situations as well as their intended consumption/saving plans serve as valuable real estate price predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt, 2014. "Forecasting real estate prices in Germany: the role of consumer confidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 244-263, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:31:y:2014:i:3:p:244-263
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2014.940059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "Pooling versus Model Selection for Nowcasting with Many Predictors: An Application to German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/13, European University Institute.
    2. Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, 2010. "Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals," EcoMod2010 259600061, EcoMod.
    3. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
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    1. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    2. Omokolade Akinsomi & Goodness C. Aye & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Real estate returns predictability revisited: novel evidence from the US REITs market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1165-1190, November.
    3. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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