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Exploring the dynamic relationship between housing and retail property markets: an empirical study of Hong Kong

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  • Eddie C.M. Hui
  • Xian Zheng

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between housing returns and retail property returns, and the existence of volatility spillover between the two property markets of Hong Kong. Two multivariate stochastic volatility models (MSV), namely Granger causality MSV and DCC-MSV model, are used to capture the time-varying correlations and the volatility spillover effect, respectively. The findings show that the correlations between housing returns and retail property returns follow a dynamic process, and such dynamic correlation could serve as a leading indicator for future property price movements. Besides, the findings also suggest that Hong Kong’s retail property market is generally more volatile than its residential market. Additionally, we find a unilateral volatility spillover from residential property to retail property in the Hong Kong market.

Suggested Citation

  • Eddie C.M. Hui & Xian Zheng, 2012. "Exploring the dynamic relationship between housing and retail property markets: an empirical study of Hong Kong," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 85-102, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:85-102
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2012.674968
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2024. "High-Frequency Contagion between Aggregate and Regional Housing Markets of the United States with Financial Assets: Evidence from Multichannel Tests," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 253-276, August.
    2. Hui, Eddie Chi-man & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2014. "The global financial crisis: Is there any contagion between real estate and equity markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 216-225.
    3. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.

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