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Estimation of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach

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  • Yiu-kuen Tse
  • Thomas Tao Yang

Abstract

We propose a method to estimate the intraday volatility of a stock by integrating the instantaneous conditional return variance per unit time obtained from the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, called the ACD-ICV method. We compare the daily volatility estimated using the ACD-ICV method against several versions of the realized volatility (RV) method, including the bipower variation RV with subsampling, the realized kernel estimate, and the duration-based RV. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method has lower root mean-squared error than the RV methods in almost all cases considered. This article has online supplementary material.

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  • Yiu-kuen Tse & Thomas Tao Yang, 2012. "Estimation of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 533-545, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:4:p:533-545
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2012.707582
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    Cited by:

    1. Helton Saulo & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan & Roberto Vila, 2021. "On a quantile autoregressive conditional duration model applied to high-frequency financial data," Papers 2109.03844, arXiv.org.
    2. Saulo, Helton & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy & Vila, Roberto, 2023. "On a quantile autoregressive conditional duration model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 425-448.
    3. Tse, Yiu-Kuen & Dong, Yingjie, 2014. "Intraday periodicity adjustments of transaction duration and their effects on high-frequency volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 352-361.
    4. Zhicheng Li & Haipeng Xing, 2022. "High-Frequency Quote Volatility Measurement Using a Change-Point Intensity Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Denisa Georgiana Banulescu & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "High-Frequency Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00859456, HAL.
    6. Wang, Keli & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ye, Wuyi, 2023. "Intraday VaR: A copula-based approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Dong, Yingjie & Tse, Yiu-Kuen, 2017. "On estimating market microstructure noise variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 59-62.
    8. Liu, Shouwei & Tse, Yiu-Kuen, 2015. "Intraday Value-at-Risk: An asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 437-446.
    9. Bjoern Schulte-Tillmann & Mawuli Segnon & Timo Wiedemann, 2023. "A comparison of high-frequency realized variance measures: Duration- vs. return-based approaches," CQE Working Papers 10523, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    10. Yingjie Dong & Yiu-Kuen Tse, 2017. "Business Time Sampling Scheme with Applications to Testing Semi-Martingale Hypothesis and Estimating Integrated Volatility," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Zhao, X. & Hong, S. Y. & Linton, O. B., 2024. "Jumps Versus Bursts: Dissection and Origins via a New Endogenous Thresholding Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2449, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Zhao, X. & Hong, S. Y. & Linton, O. B., 2024. "Jumps Versus Bursts: Dissection and Origins via a New Endogenous Thresholding Approach," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2423, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Mariano González-Sánchez & Eva M. Ibáñez Jiménez & Ana I. Segovia San Juan, 2021. "Market and Liquidity Risks Using Transaction-by-Transaction Information," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-14, July.

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