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Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic, scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

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  • Megan Davenport
  • Marion Delport
  • James Nelson Blignaut
  • Tanja Hichert
  • Gerhard van der Burgh

Abstract

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Megan Davenport & Marion Delport & James Nelson Blignaut & Tanja Hichert & Gerhard van der Burgh, 2019. "Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic, scenario-based decision support for sustainable development," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(4), pages 692-716, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:62:y:2019:i:4:p:692-716
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2018.1428185
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyao Zhang & Ubaldo Comite & Ali Gokhan Yucel & Xintao Liu & Mohammed Arshad Khan & Shahid Husain & Muhammad Safdar Sial & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2021. "Unleashing the Importance of TQM and Knowledge Management for Organizational Sustainability in the Age of Circular Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Javier Martínez‐Falcó & Bartolomé Marco‐Lajara & Patrocinio Zaragoza‐Sáez & Luis A. Millán‐Tudela, 2023. "Analyzing the effect of Corporate Social Responsibility on Green Innovation Performance in the Spanish wine industry: A structural equation modeling analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 985-1006, October.
    3. Rafał Blazy & Jakub Błachut & Agnieszka Ciepiela & Rita Łabuz & Renata Papież, 2021. "Thermal Modernization Cost and the Potential Ecological Effect—Scenario Analysis for Thermal Modernization in Southern Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Muhammad Khuram Khalil & Umaporn Muneenam, 2021. "Total Quality Management Practices and Corporate Green Performance: Does Organizational Culture Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-27, October.
    5. Marco-Lajara, B. & Úbeda-García, M. & Zaragoza-Sáez, P. & Manresa-Marhuenda, E., 2023. "The impact of international experience on firm economic performance. The double mediating effect of green knowledge acquisition & eco-innovation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Tai-Wei Chang & Kuo-Hsuan Wang & Yi-Hsiung Lin, 2020. "Corporate Sustainability: It’s Mine! Effect of Green Product Psychological Ownership on the Environmental Behavior and Performance of Employees," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Hengjie Xu & Qiang Mei & Fakhar Shahzad & Suxia Liu & Xingle Long & Jingjing Zhang, 2020. "Untangling the Impact of Green Finance on the Enterprise Green Performance: A Meta-Analytic Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-16, October.

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