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A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning

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  • Eva Haslauer
  • Markus Biberacher
  • Thomas Blaschke

Abstract

General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Haslauer & Markus Biberacher & Thomas Blaschke, 2016. "A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(5), pages 866-890, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:59:y:2016:i:5:p:866-890
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1044652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kishita, Yusuke & Höjer, Mattias & Quist, Jaco, 2024. "Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users’ guide," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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