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Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in light of historical experience in the CEE region

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  • Maria Siranova
  • Marek Radvanský

Abstract

This article applies set of 24 baseline and auxiliary indicators included into the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure framework on the conditions of 17 CEE countries to assess their predictive power given the policy pre-determined and optimal thresholds for the period 1991–2014. Our results suggest that the optimal official thresholds might either be excessively too accommodative (public and private, total or external debt levels), overly conservative (current account balance, export market share and nominal unit labour costs), or with less informative value (labour market characteristics) for set of transition economies. Indicators with higher predictive power belong predominantly to the group of external imbalances indicators.

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  • Maria Siranova & Marek Radvanský, 2018. "Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in light of historical experience in the CEE region," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 335-352, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecprf:v:21:y:2018:i:4:p:335-352
    DOI: 10.1080/17487870.2017.1364642
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    Cited by:

    1. Ostrihoň, Filip, 2022. "Exploring macroeconomic imbalances through EU Alert Mechanism Reports," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Maria Siranova & Karol Zelenak, 2023. "Every crisis does matter: Comparing the databases of financial crisis events," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 652-686, May.
    3. Krzysztof Biegun & Jacek Karwowski & Piotr Luty, 2021. "How Effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in Predicting Negative Macroeconomic Phenomena?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 822-837.
    4. Tarika Sikarwar & Anivesh Goyal & Harshita Mathur, 2020. "Household Debt, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Growth of India: Is it Alarming for India?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 229-248, February.
    5. R.A Zhukov, 2021. "Assessment of the Balanced Functioning of Hierarchical Socio-Economic Systems," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(1), pages 84-109.
    6. Gould, David M. & Melecky, Martin & Panterov, Georgi, 2016. "Finance, growth and shared prosperity: Beyond credit deepening," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 737-758.
    7. Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
    8. Siranova, Maria, 2024. "Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

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