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No Condition is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade

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  • Paul Andres Corral Rodas
  • Vasco Molini
  • Gbemisola Oseni

Abstract

The economic debate on the existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Building on a recently developed framework called the Vulnerability Approach to Middle Class (VAMC) to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the size of the Nigerian middle class in a rigorous quantitative manner and to gauge its evolution over time. Using the VAMC method, the middle class group can be defined residually from the vulnerability analysis as those for which the probability of falling into poverty is below a certain threshold. The results show the size of the Nigerian middle class from is around 20 percent of the total population in 2012/13. However, the rate has been slower than expected given the high growth rates experienced in the country over the same period. The results also paint a heterogeneous picture of the middle class in Nigeria with large spatial differences. The southern regions have a higher share and experienced more growth of the middle class compared with the northern regions.

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  • Paul Andres Corral Rodas & Vasco Molini & Gbemisola Oseni, 2019. "No Condition is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 294-310, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:55:y:2019:i:2:p:294-310
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1366453
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    1. Fabio Clementi & Andrew L. Dabalen & Vasco Molini & Francesco Schettino, 2014. "The Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-149, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Clementi, Fabio & Dabalen, Andrew L. & Molini, Vasco & Schettino, Francesco, 2014. "The centre cannot hold: Patterns of polarization in Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series 149, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
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    5. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2017. "When the Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 608-632, December.
    6. Partridge, Mark D, 1997. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1019-1032, December.
    7. Solimano, Andrés, 2008. "The middle class and the development process," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5432, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. David T. Geithman, 1974. "Middle Class Growth and Economic Development in Latin America," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 45-58, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2019. "Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria," GLO Discussion Paper Series 334, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Corral, Paul & Radchenko, Natalia, 2017. "What’s So Spatial about Diversification in Nigeria?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-253.
    3. Rick Mourits & Luuk Van Kempen, 2016. "How Do the Middle Class and the Poor Grow Apart? An Empirical Test of the Psychological Well-Being Pathway in Middle-Income Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 28(5), pages 893-915, November.
    4. Schettino, Francesco & Gabriele, Alberto & Khan, Haider A., 2021. "Polarization and the middle class in China: A non-parametric evaluation using CHNS and CHIP data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 251-264.
    5. Bahia, Kalvin & Castells, Pau & Cruz, Genaro & Masaki, Takaaki & Pedrós, Xavier & Pfutze, Tobias & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2024. "The welfare effects of mobile broadband internet: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Clementi,Fabio & Fabiani,Michele & Molini,Vasco & Schettino,Francesco, 2022. "Is Inequality Systematically Underestimated in Sub-Saharan Africa ? A Proposal toOvercome the Problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10058, The World Bank.
    7. Nikodemska-Wołowik Anna Maria & Wach Dagmara & Andruszkiewicz Katarzyna & Otukoya Ade, 2021. "Conscious shopping of middle-class consumers during the pandemic: Exploratory study in Mexico, Nigeria, Poland, and Sri Lanka," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 209-219, September.
    8. Khan, Haider & Schettino, Francesco, 2018. "Income Polarization in the USA (1983-2016): what happened to the middle class?," MPRA Paper 85554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2020. "We forgot the middle class! Inequality underestimation in a changing Sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(1), pages 45-70, March.
    10. Ibok, Otu W. & Osbahr, Henny & Srinivasan, Chittur, 2019. "Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 10-20.
    11. Schettino, Francesco & Khan, Haider A., 2020. "Income polarization in the USA: What happened to the middle class in the last few decades?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 149-161.
    12. Olusegun Felix Ayadi & Ladelle M. Hyman & Johnnie Williams & Bettye Desselle, 2018. "How Effective Is Resource Stabilization Fund in a Mono-product Economy?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 842-858, August.
    13. Rocco Zizzamia & Simone Schotte & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2016. "Vulnerability and the Middle Class in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 188, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    14. World Bank, 2016. "Poverty Reduction in Nigeria in the Last Decade," World Bank Publications - Reports 25825, The World Bank Group.

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