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The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector

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  • Lawrence Edwards
  • Rhys Jenkins

Abstract

This article uses a Chenery-type decomposition and econometric estimation to evaluate the impact of Chinese trade on production and employment in South African manufacturing from 1992 to 2010. The results suggest that increased import penetration from China caused South African manufacturing output to be 5 per cent lower in 2010 than it otherwise would have been. The estimated reduction of total employment in manufacturing as a result of trade with China is larger - in 2010 about 8 per cent - because the declines in output were concentrated on labour-intensive industries and because the increase in imports raised labour productivity within industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence Edwards & Rhys Jenkins, 2015. "The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 447-463, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:51:y:2014:i:4:p:447-463
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2014.983912
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    1. Lawrence Edwards & Rhys Jenkins, 2015. "The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 447-463, April.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
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