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Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003

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  • Gudrun Østby
  • Henrik Urdal
  • Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin
  • S. Mansoob Murshed
  • Håvard Strand

Abstract

All parts of a country are rarely equally affected by political violence. Yet statistical studies largely fail to address sub-national conflict dynamics. We address this gap studying variations in 'routine' and 'episodic' violence between Indonesian provinces from 1990 to 2003. Within a grievance framework, the article focuses on the violence potential of resource scarcity and population pressure, as well as inter-group dynamics related to polarisation and horizontal inequality. Demographic pressure and inequality seem to have little effect in isolation. However, in provinces where population growth is high, greater levels of inequality between religious groups appear to increase the violence risk.

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  • Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal & Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin & S. Mansoob Murshed & Håvard Strand, 2011. "Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 377-398.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:47:y:2011:i:3:p:377-398
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2010.506911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Siroky & Carolyn M. Warner & Gabrielle Filip-Crawford & Anna Berlin & Steven L. Neuberg, 2020. "Grievances and rebellion: Comparing relative deprivation and horizontal inequality," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 694-715, November.
    2. Geschwind, Stephan & Graf Lambsdorff, Johann, 2025. "Does scarcity induce hostility? An experimental investigation of common-pool resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Solveig Hillesund, 2019. "Choosing Whom to Target: Horizontal Inequality and the Risk of Civil and Communal Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 528-554, February.
    4. Gudrun Østby, 2013. "Inequality and political violence: A review of the literature," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 206-231, June.
    5. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "The Next World and the New World: Relief, Migration, and the Great Irish Famine," Working Papers 201821, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    6. Tuki, Daniel, 2023. "Undead Past: What Drives Support for the Secessionist Goal of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in Nigeria? (Version 2)," SocArXiv afy37_v1, Center for Open Science.
    7. Solveig Hillesund & Gudrun Østby, 2023. "Horizontal inequalities, political violence, and nonviolent conflict mobilization: A review of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 1589-1635, December.
    8. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    9. Mengmeng Hao & Jingying Fu & Dong Jiang & Fangyu Ding & Shuai Chen, 2020. "Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short‐Term Memory Algorithm," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1139-1150, June.
    10. de Juan, Alexander & Geissel, Daniel & Lay, Jann & Lohmann, Rebecca, 2022. "Large-scale land deals and social conflict: Evidence and policy implications," GIGA Working Papers 328, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    11. Justino, Patricia & Martorano, Bruno, 2018. "Welfare spending and political conflict in Latin America, 1970–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 98-110.
    12. Yu, Jiangli & Wang, Shuo & Yang, Wantong, 2023. "Natural resources governance and geopolitical risks: A literature review and bibliometric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    13. Pierskalla, Jan H. & Sacks, Audrey, 2017. "Unpacking the Effect of Decentralized Governance on Routine Violence: Lessons from Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 213-228.
    14. Alexander De Juan & Jan H. Pierskalla, 2015. "Manpower to coerce and co-opt—State capacity and political violence in southern Sudan 2006–2010," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 175-199, April.
    15. Azis Iwan J. & Pratama Alvin, 2020. "Polarization and Local Conflicts in Post Decentralization Indonesia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, May.
    16. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2017. "Welfare Spending and Political Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 256, Households in Conflict Network.
    17. Tuki, Daniel, 2023. "Undead Past: What Drives Support for the Secessionist Goal of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in Nigeria? (Version 2)," SocArXiv afy37, Center for Open Science.
    18. Qian Wang & Mengmeng Hao & David Helman & Fangyu Ding & Dong Jiang & Xiaolan Xie & Shuai Chen & Tian Ma, 2023. "Quantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000–2015," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9289-9306, September.
    19. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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