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Simulating the impact of policy changes in Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades

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  • Viviane Azevedo
  • Marcos Robles

Abstract

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes are being widely used in developing countries to reduce poverty and enhance children's human capital. Researchers have generally relied on ex-ante evaluation models to fine-tune existing CCTs or to design new ones. One of the main pitfalls is 'targeted modelling', in which results of counterfactual simulations might be driven by model features rather than the policy objectives. This paper uses the ex-ante evaluation technique of Bourguignon et al., relaxes one of its assumptions, and simulates policy changes at the national level for the Mexican CCT. The model's result are in line with information from the national household survey, and counterfactual simulations indicate that overall school attendance can increase without additional budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviane Azevedo & Marcos Robles, 2010. "Simulating the impact of policy changes in Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 263-286.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:263-286
    DOI: 10.1080/19439341003710380
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2005. "PROGRESA and its impacts on the welfare of rural households in Mexico:," Research reports 139, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    1. Debowicz, Dario & Golan, Jennifer, 2012. "The impact of Oportunidades on human capital and income distribution: a top-down/bottom-up approach," Conference papers 330252, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Debowicz, Darío & Golan, Jennifer, 2014. "The impact of Oportunidades on human capital and income distribution in Mexico: A top-down/bottom-up approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 24-42.
    3. Ugo Gentilini, 2015. "Entering the City," World Bank Publications - Reports 22482, The World Bank Group.
    4. Gentilini,Ugo, 2015. "Entering the city : emerging evidence and practices with safety nets in urban areas," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98253, The World Bank.
    5. Viviane Azevedo & Marcos Robles, 2013. "Multidimensional Targeting: Identifying Beneficiaries of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 447-475, June.

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