IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jbemgt/v12y2011i4p589-602.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Frequency domain analysis of consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales for selected european countries

Author

Listed:
  • Aslı Yüksel Mermod
  • Gitana Dudzevičiūtė

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between consumer confidence, economic growth and retail sales for selected countries employing frequency domain analysis. Our methodology includes the causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) which improves the methodology of Geweke (1982) and Hosoya (1991). We focus on the causality tests across frequency bands as well as the usual Granger causality tests. Especially for the emerging countries the causality goes from the economic growth to consumer confidence but not vice versa. This argument basically supports the findings of Güneş and Uzun (2010) as well as Balkytė and Tvaronavičienė (2010), which claim that in emerging countries consumers are not able to trigger the economic growth with their confidence due to their subsistence level of income. Besides, causality from consumer confidence to retail sales, which is a proxy for the consumer expenditures, is detected. As in Basdas and Çelik (2010), we also obtain significant differences whenever the frequency domain causality tests are employed instead of usual Granger causality tests in time domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Aslı Yüksel Mermod & Gitana Dudzevičiūtė, 2011. "Frequency domain analysis of consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales for selected european countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 589-602, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:589-602
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2011.599406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3846/16111699.2011.599406
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3846/16111699.2011.599406?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
    3. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    4. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
    5. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikola Gradojević & Eldin Dobardžić, 2013. "Causality between Regional Stock Markets: A Frequency Domain Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 633-647, September.
    2. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Turkey: Selected Issue," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/105, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
    7. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Yeung, Matthew C.H. & Ramasamy, Bala & Chen, Junsong & Paliwoda, Stan, 2013. "Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 406-416.
    9. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    10. Ali Al‐Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short‐Term Forecasting Of Consumption," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 96-111, January.
    11. Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," Working Papers 2024-15, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    12. Konstantinos Drakos & Christos Kallandranis, 2007. "Investment and cash flow: evidence for asymmetries in European manufacturing," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1191-1200.
    13. Muhammad Ashraf & Arslan Ali Raza & Muhammad Ishaq, 2022. "A Novel Approach Of Social Media Analytics For Predicting National Consumer Confidence Index," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 220-234, June.
    14. César Carrera & Miguel Puch, 2019. "Consumption dynamics and the expectation channel in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 144, Peruvian Economic Association.
    15. Mao, Huina & Counts, Scott & Bollen, Johan, 2015. "Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets," Statistics Paper Series 09, European Central Bank.
    16. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
    17. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
    18. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2003. "Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains," Staff Working Papers 03-13, Bank of Canada.
    19. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Loría, Eduardo & Brito, L., 2004. "Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-15, Diciembre.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:589-602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/TBEM20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.