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Evaluating the influence of crashes on driving risk using recurrent event models and Naturalistic Driving Study data

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  • Chen Chen
  • Feng Guo

Abstract

Dramatic events such as crashes could alter driver behavior and change driving risk during post-event period. This study investigated the influence of crashes on driving risk using the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study data. The analysis is based on 51 crashes from primary drivers. Driving risk is measured by the intensity of safety-critical incidents (SCI) and near-crashes (NC), which typically occur at a high frequency both before and after a crash. We applied four alternative recurrent event models to evaluate the influence of crashes based on actual driving time. The driving period was divided into several phases based on the relationship to crashes, and the event intensities of these periods were compared. Results show a reduction in SCI intensity after the first crash ( $ {\rm intensity rate ratio} = 0.82 $ intensityrateratio=0.82; $ 95\% $ 95% CI $ [0.693, 0.971] $ [0.693,0.971]) and the second crash ( $ {\rm intensity rate ratio} = 0.47 $ intensityrateratio=0.47; $ 95\% $ 95% CI $ [0.377, 0.59] $ [0.377,0.59]) for male drivers. No significant response to the first crash was observed for females, but SCI intensity decreased after the second crash ( $ {\rm intensity rate ratio} = 0.43 $ intensityrateratio=0.43; $ 95\% $ 95% CI $ [0.342, 0.547] $ [0.342,0.547]). The findings of this study provide crucial information for understanding driver behavior and for developing effective safety education programs as well as safety counter measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Chen & Feng Guo, 2016. "Evaluating the influence of crashes on driving risk using recurrent event models and Naturalistic Driving Study data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 2225-2238, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:43:y:2016:i:12:p:2225-2238
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1134449
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    1. D. Y. Lin & L. J. Wei & I. Yang & Z. Ying, 2000. "Semiparametric regression for the mean and rate functions of recurrent events," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 711-730.
    2. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
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