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A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for predicting the distribution of sea surface elevation

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  • Tsukasa Hokimoto
  • Kunio Shimizu

Abstract

The prediction problem of sea state based on the field measurements of wave and meteorological factors is a topic of interest from the standpoints of navigation safety and fisheries. Various statistical methods have been considered for the prediction of the distribution of sea surface elevation. However, prediction of sea state in the transitional situation when waves are developing by blowing wind has been a difficult problem until now, because the statistical expression of the dynamic mechanism during this situation is very complicated. In this article, we consider this problem through the development of a statistical model. More precisely, we develop a model for the prediction of the time-varying distribution of sea surface elevation, taking into account a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model in which the time-varying structures are influenced by wind speed and wind direction. Our prediction experiments suggest the possibility that the proposed model contributes to an improvement of the prediction accuracy by using a homogenous hidden Markov model. Furthermore, we found that the prediction accuracy is influenced by the circular distribution of the circular hidden Markov model for the directional time series wind direction data.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsukasa Hokimoto & Kunio Shimizu, 2014. "A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for predicting the distribution of sea surface elevation," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 294-319, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:294-319
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.839634
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca De Angelis & Leonard J. Paas, 2013. "A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1682-1700, August.
    2. Tsukasa Hokimoto & Kunio Shimizu, 2008. "An angular–linear time series model for waveheight prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 60(4), pages 781-800, December.
    3. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoping Zhan & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Kunio Shimizu, 2018. "Markov-Switching Linked Autoregressive Model for Non-continuous Wind Direction Data," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(3), pages 410-425, September.
    2. Leonard Paas, 2014. "Comments on: Latent Markov models: a review of a general framework for the analysis of longitudinal data with covariates," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(3), pages 473-477, September.
    3. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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