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Inflation uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from the LAD ARCH model

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  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah
  • Nor Aishah Hamzah
  • Shamsul Rijal Muhammad Sabri

Abstract

In this paper, we combined the panel data and least absolute deviation autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) (L1-ARCH) model to infer on the relationship between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in five emerging market economies. Two interesting findings emerged from the analysis; first, we confirmed that the inflation uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on economic growth. Second, inflation is also an important variable and it is detrimental to economic prospects in the fast-growing Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. All in all, the empirical findings suggest that greater stability in the economy may be desirable in order to stimulate economic growth in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Nor Aishah Hamzah & Shamsul Rijal Muhammad Sabri, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from the LAD ARCH model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 195-206.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:1:p:195-206
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760903406397
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    Cited by:

    1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    2. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2024. "The Economic Effects of Global Inflation Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 69-150, April.
    3. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    5. Mandeya Shelton M.T & Ho Sin-Yu, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and the Economic Growth Nexus: A Review of the Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 172-190, June.
    6. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.

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