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The exchange rate risk of Chinese yuan: Using VaR and ES based on extreme value theory

Author

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  • Zongrun Wang
  • Weitao Wu
  • Chao Chen
  • Yanju Zhou

Abstract

This paper applies extreme value theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of return series of Chinese yuan (CNY) exchange rates. We find that the degree of fitting Pareto distribution to the data of the tail of return series is extremely high. The empirical results indicate that expected shortfall cannot improve the tail risk problem of value-at-risk (VaR). The evidence of back testing indicates that EVT-based VaR values underestimate the risks of exchange rates such as USD/CNY and HKD/CNY, which may be caused by the continuous appreciation of CNY against USD and HKD. However, compared with VaR values calculated by historical simulation and variance-covariance method, VaR values calculated by EVT can measure the risk more accurately for the exchange rates of JPY/CNY and EUR/CNY.

Suggested Citation

  • Zongrun Wang & Weitao Wu & Chao Chen & Yanju Zhou, 2010. "The exchange rate risk of Chinese yuan: Using VaR and ES based on extreme value theory," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 265-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:37:y:2010:i:2:p:265-282
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760902846114
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Just & Krzysztof Echaust, 2021. "An Optimal Tail Selection in Risk Measurement," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Chigozie Utazi & Edmore Ranganai & Chibuzor Nnanatu, 2023. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk in BRICS Economies," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 251-290, April.
    3. de Jesús, Raúl & Ortiz, Edgar & Cabello, Alejandra, 2013. "Long run peso/dollar exchange rates and extreme value behavior: Value at Risk modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 139-152.
    4. Wang, Zong-Run & Chen, Xiao-Hong & Jin, Yan-Bo & Zhou, Yan-Ju, 2010. "Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH–EVT-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4918-4928.
    5. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    6. Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba & Mathias Mandla Manguzvane, 2021. "Exchange Rate Risk and International Equity Portfolio Diversification: A South African Investor’s Perspective," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 36-49.
    7. Viviane Naimy & José-María Montero & Rim El Khoury & Nisrine Maalouf, 2020. "Market Volatility of the Three Most Powerful Military Countries during Their Intervention in the Syrian War," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab & Uppal, Jamshed Y. & Zaman, Khalid & Naseem, Imran & Shah, Ghias Ud Din, 2013. "Foreign exchange risk in a managed float regime: A case study of Pakistani rupee," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 409-417.

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