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Can China Feed its People into the Next Millennium? Projections for China's grain supply and demand to 2010

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  • Liming Wang
  • John Davis

Abstract

Econometric models of grain supply and demand which incorporate the effects of policy interventions and institutional changes are used as the basis for projecting grain balances in China to 2010. The paper outlines key assumptions about future changes in grain policies and other important explanatory variables in the models. On the supply side, projections are made for grain sown area, grain yield and total grain output. Future grain demand is disaggregated into four categories, human food, animal feed, industrial uses and seed grain, each incorporating high, medium and low demand growth scenarios. A grain balance sheet is constructed for 2010 which shows a 'most probable' import requirement of about 32 million tones—a 10 million tones increase over the actual 1995 level. Thus, net grain imports will increase substantially but China is unlikely to become an importer on a massive scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Liming Wang & John Davis, 1998. "Can China Feed its People into the Next Millennium? Projections for China's grain supply and demand to 2010," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:53-67
    DOI: 10.1080/026921719800000025
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhuang, Renan & Abbott, Philip, 2007. "Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 155-169.
    2. Ping Zong & John Davis, 1998. "Off‐Farm Employment and Grain Marketable Surplus in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 346-358, September.

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