Simulated gambling consumption mediation model (SGCMM): disentangling convergence with parallel mediation models

Simulated Internet gambling (SG) raises concerns, especially with regard to adolescents, because it may facilitate monetary gambling or problem gambling (PG). Only scarce research examined mechanisms via which SG prospectively impacts gambling onset or PG. The study fills this gap by using longitudinal survey-data (12 months; N = 1,178 pupils from Northern Germany; M = 13.6 years; 47.5% male). Parallel mediation models in different types of SG (via video games, apps, social networks, demo games) were applied to disaggregate bivariate associations of last year participation at the first stage of the survey with two outcomes: (1) PG, (2) gambling onset, both after 12 months. Mediating effects via patterns of consumption, cognition or other problematic online behaviors were examined. Both outcomes were impacted by different types of SG via quite different mechanisms: SG impacted PG mostly via indirect effects of gambling depth (maximum gambling frequency), irrational cognitions, and problematic Internet gaming (problematic Internet use revealed to be a PG decreasing mechanism). Onset was impacted via increased perception of advertising (only for SG in video games and social networks). Prospective parallel mediation models reveal relevant etiological pathways of SG on PG or gambling onset in a more exhaustive way than prior research.