Do Long Commutes Discourage Fertility Intentions Among Young Public Housing Renters in Guangzhou, China?

There are longstanding international housing policy concerns about the well-being and satisfaction of public housing residents and other low-income households. However, little is known about whether the location of public housing requires such lengthy commutes that it retards their fertility intentions. As a result, this study aims to examine the relationship between long commutes and the fertility intentions of young public housing residents and the underlying mechanism linking them. Based on data from the 2022 Public Housing Survey in Guangzhou, China, the results show that long commutes can weaken the intention to have children among young public housing residents. However, this effect is only found to be significant for the self-employed, part-time workers, and those working in the private sector, not for those working in the public sector. Moreover, the effects turn out to be more pronounced for those who commute by private car and active transportation than those who take public transportation. Finally, this study reveals that residential satisfaction mediates the nexus between long commutes and fertility intentions. This study makes an important step in advancing the scholarly understanding of the differential fertility intentions as a result of the spatial mismatch.