Exploring the Heterogeneous Effects of Ecological and Structural Factors on Intensifying Neighborhood Economic Polarization

Scholars have recently reported the rise of neighborhoods at the extremes of the income distribution—both affluent and poor neighborhoods—and the loss of middle- or mixed-income neighborhoods. As the majority of studies on neighborhood change have focused on the cyclical process of neighborhood change, especially for poor or disadvantaged neighborhoods, this study contributes to the literature by exploring the mechanisms of affluent and poor neighborhoods’ persistence in their economic status over time. First, this research descriptively shows that affluent and poor neighborhoods within the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) as of 2010 were likely to retain their economic status during the 2000s, whereas other, relatively middle-income neighborhoods presented more diverse economic transitions. Second, by employing multilevel regression models, this research finds that several ecological and structural factors heterogeneously affect affluent and poor neighborhoods. The results suggest that affluent neighborhoods tend to respond more effectively to the decline process generated by ecological, economic, and structural forces than poor neighborhoods do. This study contributes to the urban neighborhood change scholarship by integrating different theoretical perspectives from the social science literature to understand how neighborhoods at the extremes of the income distribution are likely to persist in their economic status.