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Peak Millennials: Three Reinforcing Cycles That Amplify the Rise and Fall of Urban Concentration by Millennials

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  • Dowell Myers

Abstract

The rise and fall of the Millennial generation congregating in central cities is a product of life course meeting unique historical context. Three reinforcing cycles harmonized before 2010 to maximize Millennial presence, and then will harmonize in 2020 to reduce presence. In 2015, the peak Millennial birth cohort passed age 25, with smaller cohorts to follow. Job opportunity that had sharply worsened following the Great Recession is reversing, with renewed job growth opening entry positions, and with less competition from smaller cohorts. In housing, Millennials were doubled up at entry levels of their housing life cycle, blocked by older peers who were unable to turn over their apartments for better homes. With renewal of new construction and home buying, stronger vacancy chains will again stimulate outflow. The combined effect of the three reversed cycles will reduce central concentrations of young adults. Preferences may persist for urban walkability but, freed of their former constraints, preferences will now be expressed through choice from a broader range of locales. Cities and suburbs can compete for Millennials passing age 30 with walkable districts, transit, and better schools and housing.

Suggested Citation

  • Dowell Myers, 2016. "Peak Millennials: Three Reinforcing Cycles That Amplify the Rise and Fall of Urban Concentration by Millennials," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 928-947, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:houspd:v:26:y:2016:i:6:p:928-947
    DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2016.1165722
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    Cited by:

    1. Kailai Wang & Xize Wang, 2022. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Papers 2206.11056, arXiv.org.
    2. Robert E. Lang & Karen A. Danielsen, 2017. "Peak Millennials," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 327-330, March.
    3. Shin, Jaeyong & Tilahun, Nebiyou, 2022. "The role of residential choice on the travel behavior of young adults," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 62-74.
    4. Circella, Giovanni & Alemi, Farzad & Tiedeman, Kate & Berliner, Rosaria M & Lee, Yongsung & Fulton, Lew & Mokhtarian, Patricia L & Handy , Susan, 2017. "What Affects Millennials’ Mobility? PART II: The Impact of Residential Location, Individual Preferences and Lifestyles on Young Adults’ Travel Behavior in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5kc117kj, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Lee, Yongsung & Lee, Bumsoo, 2022. "What’s eating public transit in the United States? Reasons for declining transit ridership in the 2010s," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 126-143.
    6. Deka, Devajyoti, 2018. "Exploration of millennials' perception of spending on cities, mass transit, and highways," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 224-232.
    7. Ajay Garde, 2020. "New Urbanism: Past, Present, and Future," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(4), pages 453-463.
    8. Myers, Dowell & Lee, Hyojung & Simmons, Patrick A., 2020. "Cohort insights into recovery of Millennial homeownership after the Great Recession," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    9. Klein, Nicholas J. & Smart, Michael J., 2017. "Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-29.
    10. Jackelyn Hwang & Jeffrey Lin, 2016. "What Have We Learned About the Causes of Recent Gentrification?," Working Papers 16-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Bumjoon Kang & Jaewoong Won & Eun Jung Kim, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Residential Preferences in the Early-Stage Outbreak in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-14, October.
    12. Ajay Garde, 2020. "New Urbanism: Past, Present, and Future," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(4), pages 453-463.
    13. Wang, Kailai & Wang, Xize, 2021. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," SocArXiv n3a9e, Center for Open Science.
    14. Handy, Susan, 2020. "What California Gains from Reducing Car Dependence," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0hk0h610, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. Ali Etezady & F. Atiyya Shaw & Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Giovanni Circella, 2021. "What drives the gap? Applying the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method to examine generational differences in transportation-related attitudes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 857-883, April.
    16. Rico Krueger & Taha H. Rashidi & Akshay Vij, 2020. "X vs. Y: an analysis of intergenerational differences in transport mode use among young adults," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2203-2231, October.
    17. Bereitschaft, Bradley, 2020. "Gentrification and the evolution of commuting behavior within America's urban cores, 2000–2015," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Yongsung Lee & Bumsoo Lee & Md Tanvir Hossain Shubho, 2019. "Urban revival by Millennials? Intraurban net migration patterns of young adults, 1980–2010," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 538-566, June.
    19. Volker, Jamey M B, 2020. "Exploring the Changing Faces of Housing Development and Demand in California: Millennials, Casitas, and Reducing VMT," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6p94s5mc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    20. Maria Evangelou & Martha Katafygiotou, 2024. "Sustainability of the Housing Market: Post-COVID-19 Effects on Housing Preferences in Cyprus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-23, June.
    21. Alemi, Farzad & Circella, Giovanni & Mokhtarian, Patricia & Handy, Susan, 2018. "Exploring the latent constructs behind the use of ridehailing in California," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-62.
    22. Stephan D. Whitaker, 2023. "Understanding Migration Trends to Prepare for the Post-Pandemic Future," Cleveland Fed Regional Policy Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue 20230801, pages 1-32, August.
    23. Krueger, Rico & Rashidi, Taha H. & Vij, Akshay, 2018. "X vs. Y: An Analysis of Intergenerational Differences in Transport Mode Use Among Young Adults," SocArXiv unezy, Center for Open Science.
    24. Nash, Sean & Mitra, Raktim, 2019. "University students' transportation patterns, and the role of neighbourhood types and attitudes," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 200-211.
    25. Zhang, Ming & Li, Yang, 2022. "Generational travel patterns in the United States: New insights from eight national travel surveys," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-13.

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