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Investor Sentiment and Financial Market Volatility

Author

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  • Hui-Chu Shu
  • Jung-Hsien Chang

Abstract

Empirical studies have documented the influence of investor sentiment on financial markets, but the underlying economic mechanism remains unclear. This study links psychological research and a traditional asset-pricing model to investigate the influence of investor sentiment variations on financial markets. By relaxing the assumption of investor rationality, this investigation shows that a modified Lucas [1978] model can adequately interpret prominent financial market anomalies, such as high volatility, bubble and crash formation, and the relationships among investor sentiment, asset prices and expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui-Chu Shu & Jung-Hsien Chang, 2015. "Investor Sentiment and Financial Market Volatility," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 206-219, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:16:y:2015:i:3:p:206-219
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2015.1064930
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    Cited by:

    1. Riso, Luigi & Vacca, Gianmarco, 2024. "Sentiment dynamics and volatility: A study based on GARCH-MIDAS and machine learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    2. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Zhikai Zhang, 2024. "Forecasting stock returns with industry volatility concentration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2705-2730, November.
    3. Darko B. Vukovic & Orifjon O. U. Kurbonov & Moinak Maiti & Mustafa Özer & Milan Radovanovic, 2024. "Outperforming the market: a comparison of Star and NonStar analysts’ investment strategies and recommendations," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Maitra, Debasish & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2017. "Sentiment and stock market volatility revisited: A time–frequency domain approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 74-91.
    5. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Ayadi, Rim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Exploring the causal links between investor sentiment and financial instability: A dynamic macro-financial analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 290-303.
    6. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    7. Li, Jiaqi & Ahn, Hee-Joon, 2024. "Sensitivity of Chinese stock markets to individual investor sentiment: An analysis of Sina Weibo mood related to COVID-19," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    8. Kanzari, Dalel & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2023. "Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Xiaohong Shen & Gaoshan Wang & Yue Wang & Alfred Peris, 2021. "The Influence of Research Reports on Stock Returns: The Mediating Effect of Machine-Learning-Based Investor Sentiment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, December.
    10. Liu, Zhicao & Ye, Yong & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty help to forecast the volatility: A multifractal perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 181-188.
    11. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Jumps beyond the realms of cricket: India's performance in One Day Internationals and stock market movements," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 1109-1127, April.
    12. Ravi Kashyap, 2019. "Imitation in the Imitation Game," Papers 1911.06893, arXiv.org.
    13. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Global financial crisis versus COVID‐19: Evidence from sentiment analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 218-248, August.
    14. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2021. "The day-of-the-week-effect on the volatility of commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Souropanis, Ioannis & Vivian, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with wavelet decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Blajer-Gołębiewska, Anna & Honecker, Lukas & Nowak, Sabina, 2024. "Investor sentiment response to COVID-19 outbreak-related news: A sectoral analysis of US firms," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Dias, Ishanka K. & Fernando, J.M. Ruwani & Fernando, P. Narada D., 2022. "Does investor sentiment predict bitcoin return and volatility? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    20. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Johan, Sofia & Lawal, Rodiat & Paterson, Audrey & Chatzivgeri, Eleni, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between investors’ sentiment and asset prices: A comparison between major markets in Europe and USA," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Nagmi Aimer & Abdulmula Lusta, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Economic Policy Uncertainty," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-6.
    22. Khan, Muhammad Arif & Hassan, M. Kabir & Maraghini, Maria Pia & Paolo, Biancone & Valentinuz, Giorgio, 2024. "Valuation effect of ESG and its impact on capital structure: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-35.
    23. Hussain, Shahzad & Akbar, Muhammad & Malik, Qaisar & Ahmad, Tanveer & Abbas, Nasir, 2021. "Downside Systematic Risk in Pakistani Stock Market: Role of Corporate Governance, Financial Liberalization and Investor Sentiment," CAFE Working Papers 14, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.

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