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Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict

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  • Joshua Eastin

Abstract

Do natural disasters prolong civil conflict? Or are disasters more likely to encourage peace as hostilities diminish when confronting shared hardship or as shifts in the balance of power between insurgents and the state hasten cessation? To address these questions, this study performs an event history analysis of disasters’ impact on the duration of 224 armed intrastate conflicts occurring in 86 states between 1946 and 2005. I contend that natural disasters increase conflict duration by decreasing the state’s capacity to suppress insurgency, while reinforcing insurgent groups’ ability to evade capture and avoid defeat. First, disasters’ economic impact coupled with state financial outlays for disaster relief and reconstruction, reduce resources available for counterinsurgency and nation building in conflict zones. Second, the military’s role in administering humanitarian assistance can reduce the availability of troops and military hardware for counterinsurgency, prompt temporary ceasefires with insurgents, or both. Third, natural disasters can cause infrastructural damages that disproportionately hinder the state’s capacity to execute counterinsurgency missions, thereby making insurgent forces more difficult to capture and overcome. The combination of these dynamics should encourage longer conflicts in states with higher incidence of disaster. Empirical evidence strongly supports this contention, indicating that states with greater disaster vulnerability fight longer wars.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Eastin, 2016. "Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 322-349, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:42:y:2016:i:2:p:322-349
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2016.1115402
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariagrazia D'Angeli & Giovanni Marin & Elena Paglialunga, 2022. "Climate Change, Armed Conflicts and Resilience," Working Papers 2022.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Yu, Jiangli & Wang, Shuo & Yang, Wantong, 2023. "Natural resources governance and geopolitical risks: A literature review and bibliometric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    3. Brittney Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2021. "Covid-19, State Capacity, and Political Violence by Nonstate Actors," HiCN Working Papers 349, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Michael Brzoska, 2019. "Understanding the Disaster–Migration–Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World: The Importance of International Policy Interventions," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Britt Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2022. "COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 90-104, January.
    6. Stephen Nemeth & Brian Lai, 2022. "When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 28-42, January.
    7. Plänitz Erik, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Roos Haer & Babak RezaeeDaryakenari, 2022. "Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 43-57, January.
    9. Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga, 2024. "Natural Disasters and Acceptance of Intimate Partner Violence: The Global Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 17172, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Eastin, Joshua, 2018. "Climate change and gender equality in developing states," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 289-305.

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