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Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism

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  • Daniel Milton
  • Megan Spencer
  • Michael Findley

Abstract

We examine whether refugee flows increase transnational terrorism in states to which refugees flee. Recent studies find that refugee flows contribute to the spread of interstate and civil war, but to a far lesser extent have studies examined how refugee flows could lead to other forms of political violence. We discuss two ways in which refugee flows can lead to transnational terrorism: how conditions in camps contribute to the radicalization of refugees; and how poorly host states treat refugees. We then conduct empirical tests using data on worldwide international refugee flows and transnational terrorism. Specifically, we model the effect of refugee flows on transnational terror attacks within a directed dyad framework to account for characteristics of origin and host states. Using a rare-events logit model, along with count models to check robustness, we find that refugee flows significantly increase the likelihood and counts of transnational terrorist attacks that occur in the host country, even when controlling for other variables. Given the prominence of refugee flows and populations worldwide, the results suggest that states with significant refugee populations and the international community at large should take measures to address the conditions in refugee camps, as well as the treatment of refugees by host states in order to prevent transnational terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Milton & Megan Spencer & Michael Findley, 2013. "Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 621-645, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:39:y:2013:i:5:p:621-645
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2013.834256
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    Cited by:

    1. Jon Echevarria & Javier Gardeazabal, 2016. "Refugee gravitation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 269-292, December.
    2. Böhmelt, Tobias & Bove, Vincenzo, 2017. "How Migration Policies Moderate the Diffusion of Terrorism," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 349, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Dreher, Axel & Gassebner, Martin & Schaudt, Paul, 2017. "The Effect of Migration on Terror – Made at Home or Imported from Abroad?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    5. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Immigration from a terror-prone nation: destination nation’s optimal immigration and counterterrorism policies," Working Papers 2023-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Veshi Denard, 2020. "The EU Regulatory Competition in Asylum Law," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 19-30, June.
    7. Robert Falconer, 2022. "Canadian Immigration Policy and the Russo-Ukraine War," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 15(23), August.
    8. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt, 2020. "The effect of migration on terror: Made at home or imported from abroad?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1703-1744, November.
    9. Helbling, Marc & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Terrorism and Migration: An Overview," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 977-996.
    10. HORIUCHI Yusaku & ONO Yoshikuni, 2018. "Public Opposition to Refugee Resettlement: The case of Japan," Discussion papers 18050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Alex Braithwaite & Tiffany S. Chu & Justin Curtis & Faten Ghosn, 2019. "Violence and the perception of risk associated with hosting refugees," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 473-492, March.
    12. Krieger, Tim, 2020. "Migration and terrorism," Discussion Paper Series 2020-06, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    13. Tausch, Arno, 2015. "Europe’s Refugee Crisis. Zur aktuellen politischen Ökonomie von Migration, Asyl und Integration in Europa [Europe's Refugee Crisis. On the current political economy of migration, asylum and integra," MPRA Paper 67400, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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