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Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability?

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  • Mariya Y. Omelicheva

Abstract

This study engages with the question: Do different types of natural disasters—droughts, earthquakes, floods, storms, and others—trigger political instability? It revisits an ongoing debate over the nature of association between disasters and conflict and reassesses this relationship using the model of conflict developed by the Political Instability Task Force as well as its data, measures of political instability, and methods of assessment. The study finds only marginal support for the impact of certain types of disasters on the onsets of political instability. The preexisting country-specific conditions, including the resilience of a state's institutions to crisis, account for most of the variance in the dependent variable. Once the characteristics of a state's political regime are taken into account, the effect of disasters weakens or disappears completely, suggesting that natural disasters become catalysts of political instability in only those states which are already prone to conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariya Y. Omelicheva, 2011. "Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 441-465, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:37:y:2011:i:4:p:441-465
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2011.622653
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariagrazia D'Angeli & Giovanni Marin & Elena Paglialunga, 2022. "Climate Change, Armed Conflicts and Resilience," Working Papers 2022.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Tobias Ide & Miguel Rodriguez Lopez & Christiane Fröhlich & Jürgen Scheffran, 2021. "Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 568-582, May.
    3. Joakim Kreutz, 2012. "From Tremors to Talks: Do Natural Disasters Produce Ripe Moments for Resolving Separatist Conflicts?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 482-502, September.
    4. Nadia Eldemerdash & Steven T. Landis, 2023. "The Divergent Effects of Remittance Transfers for Post-Disaster States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 483-501, November.
    5. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    7. Michael Brzoska, 2019. "Understanding the Disaster–Migration–Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World: The Importance of International Policy Interventions," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Plänitz Erik, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Hilhorst, D.J.M. & Vervest, M.-J. & Desportes, I. & Melis, S. & Mena Flühmann, R.A. & van Voorst, R.S., 2020. "Strengthening community resilience in conflict: learnings from the Partners for Resilience programme," ISS Working Papers - General Series 131291, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. Reed M. Wood & Thorin M. Wright, 2016. "Responding to Catastrophe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(8), pages 1446-1472, December.
    11. Zhiyi Meng & Liming Yao, 2018. "Earthquake triggered networked risk and response: based on relevant literature," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(6), pages 2645-2666, November.
    12. Somnath Mondal & Ashok K. Mishra & Ruby Leung & Benjamin Cook, 2023. "Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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