Southern Democracy in the Long Run: A Systemic Analysis

This paper extends the leadership-long cycle systemic perspective, which so far has tended to focus on major power, rise-and-decline dynamics and global war, to explain Southern democratization. Unlike studies of democratization at the national level of analysis, we conduct a systemic level analysis, with a specific focus on the global South. Our extension the leadership-long cycle perspective predicts that Southern democracy will be driven, in part, by systemic leadership and world economic growth. Other variables also may have a role in Southern democratization, with levels of Southern economic development, Southern conflict, and Southern democratic inertia serving as controls in our model. The leadership-long cycle approach requires one to open the time window of observation to include longer time periods than is typically customary. Using data from 1870 to 1992, the empirical analysis strongly supports our theory. Increases in the level of systemic leadership and the growth rate of the world economy promote Southern democratization. Viewed within the context of our perspective, these empirical results suggest that national democratization processes are subject to global structural processes operating at the larger international system level.