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Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory

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  • Monica Duffy Toft

Abstract

Do shifts in the distribution of ethnic group populations within a multinational state make civil war more likely? This article tests the proposition that they do using the competing logic of two core theories of interstate politics: power transition (PTT) and balance of power theory (BPT). The universe of potential population transition types are reduced to nine, and the logic of each of the competing explanations of war likelihood are reduced to four testable hypotheses. Overall, PTT fares better than BPT; although the article concludes that, as is the case at the interstate level, the key determinate of war likelihood rests more with how power is perceived than with raw changes in its distribution across the spectrum of meaningful political actors. Finally, the article offers a useful framework for further specifying the conditions under which population shifts alter the likelihood of an escalation to civil war.

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  • Monica Duffy Toft, 2007. "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-269, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:33:y:2007:i:3:p:243-269
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620701449025
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Grandjean & Petros G. Sekeris, 2017. "The timing of contests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 137-149, March.
    2. HÃ¥vard Strand & Henrik Urdal, 2014. "Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 167-183, June.
    3. Ragnhild Nordås, 2014. "Religious demography and conflict: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 146-166, June.
    4. Monica Duffy Toft, 2012. "Demography and national security: The politics of population shifts in contemporary Israel," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 21-42, March.
    5. Khan, Haider, 2023. "War and Peace in East Asia: Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap with China as a Rising Power," MPRA Paper 117089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba, 2014. "Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 205-221, June.
    7. Olsson, Ola & Valsecchi, Michele, 2010. "Quantifying Ethnic Cleansing: An Application to Darfur," Working Papers in Economics 479, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Monica Duffy Toft, 2014. "Death by demography: 1979 as a turning point in the disintegration of the Soviet Union," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 184-204, June.

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