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Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory

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  • Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba

Abstract

In May 2006, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s dire demographics were the biggest challenge facing Russia. We know little about how states conduct foreign policy under demographic decline but some expect Russia to become more pacifist or to turn attention inward as its internal situation deteriorates. Power transition theory (PTT), however, which considers population as a key component of power, anticipates riskier international behavior under demographic changes. PTT predicts aggression under two conditions: when a dominant power sees its decline while secondary powers are rising; and when an inferior state sees its power increase while the dominant power declines. This article interprets Russia’s foreign policy actions from May 2006 through 2012 in light of PTT. I find that Russia was physically aggressive in its region when its population decline peaked, as PTT expects. Power transition theory also predicts Russia’s diplomatically aggressive foreign policy at the system level as Russian leaders’ perceptions of a favorable shift in the global balance of power gave them more confidence in Russia’s capabilities to challenge the status quo. This study furthers our understanding of foreign policy-making in times of demographic decline, extends power transition theory, and serves as a model for evaluating demographic trends and foreign policy for other great powers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba, 2014. "Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 205-221, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:intare:v:17:y:2014:i:2:p:205-221
    DOI: 10.1177/2233865914528823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Monica Duffy Toft, 2007. "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-269, July.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2002. "Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 233-262, September.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Treisman, Daniel, 2011. "Why Moscow Says No: A Question of Russian Interests, Not Psychology," Scholarly Articles 27867127, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Haider, 2023. "War and Peace in East Asia: Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap with China as a Rising Power," MPRA Paper 117089, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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