The Ethnic-State Perspective in International Crises: A theoretical framework applied to the Arab-Israel conflict 1947-2000

Interstate and ethnic conflicts have occurred throughout the twentieth century, but in the closing decade of the century ethnic strife has become salient. This study draws upon crisis theory and ethnicity to probe four research questions: (1) Do ethno-national actors create new issues over which states contend? (2) What is the role they play in crises? (3) Do issues and role change over time? (4) How do issues and roles affect core crisis attributes, namely gravity of threat, levels of violence, and the type of outcome in such confrontations? To explore these subjects, we define four concepts: ethnicity in crisis, ethnic-state crisis, Ethno-National Actors (ENAs), and ethnic attributes in crisis-issues and roles. We then outline a conceptual framework, spell out three postulates, and apply them to ICB data on 15 ethnic-state crises in the Arab-Israel conflict during the 1947-2000 period. Findings from these cases indicate: (1) A rise in the scope of ethnic issues, indicating a higher level of ethnic-related regional instability. (2) An increase in centrality of role ENAs play in crises. A change is also observed in the type of role they play: from an escalating one in the 1947-1973 years to a moderating posture since 1974. Postulate 1 on ethnic attributes and threat is rejected because the increase in destabilizing issues and in role centrality is not accompanied by higher gravity of threat but rather by a decrease. Postulate 2 on ethnic attributes and violence, mainly in the war category, is partly supported. Postulate 3 on ethnic attributes and outcome is supported: the increase in destabilizing issues and in role centrality is accompanied by an increase in accommodative crisis outcomes in ethnic-state crises.