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Negotiating peace in Kosovo

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Efird
  • Ambassador Peter Galbraith
  • Jacek Kugler
  • Mark Abdollahian

Abstract

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Efird & Ambassador Peter Galbraith & Jacek Kugler & Mark Abdollahian, 2000. "Negotiating peace in Kosovo," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 153-178, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:26:y:2000:i:2:p:153-178
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620008434964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
    2. Jon C. Pevehouse & Joshua S. Goldstein, 1999. "Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(4), pages 538-546, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mark Abdollahian & Carole Alsharabati, 2003. "Modeling the Strategic Effects of Risk and Perceptions in Linkage Politics," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 113-135, February.

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