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The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-Party System: The Upsurge of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the 2015 General Election

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  • Lluis Orriols
  • Guillermo Cordero

Abstract

The 2015 general election marked the end of the two-party system that had existed in Spain since the restoration of democracy. Two new parties, ‘Podemos’ and ‘Ciudadanos’, entered the national arena for the first time and together obtained 34.6 per cent of the vote. This paper describes this election’s context and electoral results by analysing the individual determinants behind the change to the Spanish party system. The results indicate that economic factors predominantly explain the votes for the traditional parties, the PP and PSOE. On the other hand, political factors help distinguish why some voters remained ‘loyal’ to the traditional parties and others switched to the new formations. While Podemos switchers were mainly politically disaffected left-wing voters, electoral support for Ciudadanos came from younger and ideologically moderate voters who had lower levels of political trust.

Suggested Citation

  • Lluis Orriols & Guillermo Cordero, 2016. "The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-Party System: The Upsurge of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the 2015 General Election," South European Society and Politics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 469-492, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:fsesxx:v:21:y:2016:i:4:p:469-492
    DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2016.1198454
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Peren Arin & Efstathios Polyzos & Marcel Thum, 2023. "The Populist Voter: A Machine Learning Approach for the Individual Characteristics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10472, CESifo.
    2. Pablo Gutiérrez-Rodríguez & Ricardo Villarreal & Pedro Cuesta-Valiño & Shelley A. Blozis, 2023. "Valuation of candidate brand equity dimensions and voting intention: alternative polling data in the Spanish presidential election," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.

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