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Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison

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  • L. Copeland
  • Ping Wang

Abstract

The well known fact that investment trusts (closed-end mutual funds in the USA) trade at a discount means that the return to an investor depends not only on the change in net asset value (NAV), but also on changes in the discount over the holding period. Using daily data, this paper models the relationship between UK investment trust prices and NAV's using cointegration methodology then shows that the forecasts based on the, error correction mechanism (ECM) compare poorly with those from vector autoregressions. And then incorporates a number of modifications to the ECM in an attempt to improve the forecasts. In particular, modelling volatility persistance and allow for asymmetric resonses in the ECM.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Copeland & Ping Wang, 2000. "Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 298-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:6:y:2000:i:3:p:298-310
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470050085111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs – Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
    2. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.

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