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Equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market

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  • Wolfgang Bessler

Abstract

This article reviews the empirical evidence for equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market for the period from 1870 to 1995. Taken together, the studies reviewed provide convincing evidence that over longer investment periods, average equity returns have been higher than average bond returns. These excess returns, however, have been highly volatile and negative in many years, illustrating the higher risk of equity investments. Moreover, market timing had a major positive or negative impact on overall returns. Despite the historical evidence of a substantial equity premium there is still little equity investment by German households.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Bessler, 1999. "Equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 186-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:186-201
    DOI: 10.1080/135184799337037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 21(Nov), pages 3-37.
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    3. Adrian Buckley, 1999. "An introduction to security returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 165-180.
    4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    5. Daniel C. Indro & Wayne Y. Lee, 1997. "Biases in Arithmetic and Geometric Averages as Estimates of Long-Run Expected Returns and Risk Premia," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), Winter.
    6. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
    7. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Eijgenhuijsen & Adrian Buckley, 1999. "An overview of returns in Europe," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 276-297.
    2. Achleitner, Ann-Kristin & Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Weir, Charlie, 2008. "Economic consequences of private equity investments on the German stock market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2008-05, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    3. Ann-Kristin Achleitner & Christian Andres & Andre Betzer & Charlie Weir, 2011. "Wealth effects of private equity investments on the German stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 217-239.

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