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Stock returns forecasting with metals: sentiment vs. fundamentals

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  • Steven J. Jordan
  • Andrew Vivian
  • Mark E. Wohar

Abstract

Using six prominent metal commodities, we provide evidence on the out-of-sample forecasting of stock returns for the market indices of the G7 countries, for which there is little prior evidence in this context. We find precious metals (gold and silver) can improve forecast accuracy relative to the benchmark and performs well compared to forecast combinations. From an economic gains perspective, forecasting returns provides certainty equivalent gains in a market timing strategy for the G7 countries. These certainty equivalent gains are large enough to make active portfolio management attractive, even for individual investors. Gains remain after considering reasonable transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Jordan & Andrew Vivian & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Stock returns forecasting with metals: sentiment vs. fundamentals," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 458-477, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:6:p:458-477
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2017.1323770
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
    3. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2023. "Tail risks and forecastability of stock returns of advanced economies: evidence from centuries of data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 466-481, March.
    4. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 365-381, July.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Climate Risks and Forecasting Stock Market Returns in Advanced Economies over a Century," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Forecastability of South African Stock Returns Over a Century: Sentiments versus Fundamentals," Working Papers 202144, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2022. "Forecasting European carbon returns using dimension reduction techniques: Commodity versus financial fundamentals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 944-969.

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