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Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a hybrid approach

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  • Kostas Andriosopoulos
  • Nikos Nomikos

Abstract

This paper proposes a set of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models appropriate to capture the dynamics of energy prices and subsequently quantify energy price risk by calculating VaR and expected shortfall measures. Amongst the competing VaR methodologies evaluated in this paper, besides the commonly used benchmark models, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach and a hybrid MC with historical simulation approach, both assuming various processes for the underlying spot prices, are also being employed. All VaR models are empirically tested on eight spot energy commodities that trade futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the constructed Spot Energy Index. A two-stage evaluation and selection process is applied, combining statistical and economic measures, to choose amongst the competing VaR models. Finally, both long and short trading positions are considered as it is of utmost importance for energy traders and risk managers to be able to capture efficiently the characteristics of both tails of the distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2015. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a hybrid approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 548-574, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:21:y:2015:i:7:p:548-574
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2013.862173
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    3. Javier Pantoja Robayo & Juan C. Vera, 2020. "Static Hedging of Weather and Price Risks in Electricity Markets," Papers 2011.08620, arXiv.org.
    4. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2020. "Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Kaijian He & Hongqian Wang & Jiangze Du & Yingchao Zou, 2016. "Forecasting Electricity Market Risk Using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)—Based Multiscale Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.

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