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Forward-Looking Disclosures, Financial Verifiability and Analysts' Forecasts: A Study of Cross-Listed European Firms

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  • Saverio Bozzolan
  • Marco Trombetta
  • Sergio Beretta

Abstract

Forward-looking disclosures are a crucial source of information when valuing a company. We study the effect of forward-looking disclosures on analysts' forecast properties, in particular accuracy and dispersion. Our sample includes all the non-financial firms from Italy, Germany, France and Switzerland that in year 2002 were cross-listed on local stock exchanges and on the New York Stock Exchange. We conduct a content analysis on the Annual Report and the 20F form of these companies for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. We differentiate between forward-looking information on the basis of the disclosure of expected effects on future financial performance and the disclosure of a measure of this impact. We define forward-looking information disclosed with the characteristics of being quantified and directed (and financial) as financially verifiable as it facilitates the comparison with its subsequent realisation in relation to expected future financial performance. Our analysis finds support for the theoretical prediction that verifiable disclosures are more effective than unverifiable disclosures at improving accuracy and reducing dispersion of analysts' forecasts. Our sample also allows us to explore the effects of the difference between the degrees of verifiability between forward-looking disclosures of the 20F form versus those of the domestic annual report. Our analysis provides empirical support for the hypotheses that these differences are significant and have a significant effect on forecast properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Saverio Bozzolan & Marco Trombetta & Sergio Beretta, 2009. "Forward-Looking Disclosures, Financial Verifiability and Analysts' Forecasts: A Study of Cross-Listed European Firms," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 435-473.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:435-473
    DOI: 10.1080/09638180802627779
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    Cited by:

    1. Rehana Anwar & Jaleel A. Malik, 2020. "When Does Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure Affect Investment Efficiency? A New Answer to an Old Question," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    2. Elena Beccalli & Peter Miller & Ted O'leary, 2015. "How Analysts Process Information: Technical and Financial Disclosures in the Microprocessor Industry," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 519-549, September.
    3. Yingying Xin & Xiao Zeng & Zhengying Luo, 2022. "Customers' tone in MD&A disclosure and suppliers' inventory efficiency: Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3833-3853, December.
    4. Enzo Scannella & Salvatore Polizzi, 2021. "How to measure bank credit risk disclosure? Testing a new methodological approach based on the content analysis framework," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 73-95, March.
    5. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.
    6. Emmadonata Carbone & Sara Saggese & Fabrizia Sarto, 2023. "La relazione tra l?esperienza degli amministratori e il business plan: un?indagine empirica sulle imprese quotate in Italia," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(1), pages 69-94.
    7. Henry, Elaine & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2021. "International Earnings Announcements: Tone, Forward-looking Statements, and Informativeness," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021016, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. Konrad Lang, 2018. "Voluntary Disclosure and Analyst Forecast," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 23-36, January.
    9. Liu, Baohua & Huang, Dan & Chen, Tao & Chan, Kam C., 2023. "Mandatory R&D disclosure and analyst forecast Accuracy: Evidence from an emerging market," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3).
    10. Liu, Sun, 2015. "Corporate governance and forward-looking disclosure: Evidence from China," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-30.
    11. Beccalli, Elena & Miller, Peter & O'Leary, Ted, 2015. "How analysts process information: technical and financial disclosures in the microprocessor industry," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60072, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Aldo Lévy & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "ROE and Value Creation under IAS/IFRS: Evidence of Discordance from French Firms," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 84-112.
    13. Julia Krause & Thorsten Sellhorn & Kamran Ahmed, 2017. "Extreme Uncertainty and Forward-looking Disclosure Properties," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(2), pages 240-272, June.
    14. Isabel María García‐Sánchez & María‐Elena Gómez‐Miranda & Fátima David & Lazaro Rodríguez‐Ariza, 2019. "Analyst coverage and forecast accuracy when CSR reports improve stakeholder engagement: The Global Reporting Initiative‐International Finance Corporation disclosure strategy," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1392-1406, November.
    15. Iatridis, George Emmanuel & Pappas, Kostas & Walker, Martin, 2022. "Narrative disclosure quality and the timeliness of goodwill impairments," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2).
    16. Charlotte Disle & Philippe Protin & Nathalie Gonthier-Besacier & Frédéric Bertrand & Stéphane Périer, 2016. "Divulgation volontaire sur le Business model : le cas des entreprises du CAC40," Post-Print hal-01900531, HAL.
    17. Liu, Xiangqiang & Dai, Jiajie & Dong, Xiaohong & Liu, Jia, 2024. "ESG rating disagreement and analyst forecast quality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    18. Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Goldstein, Michael A. & Huang, Qingcheng & Zeng, Hongjun, 2024. "Forward-looking disclosure effects on stock liquidity in China: Evidence from MD&A text analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    19. Sun, Xiaowen & Du, Zhenhua, 2024. "Enhancing capital market efficiency: The role of data assets disclosure in reducing stock price synchronicity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Bravo, Francisco, 2016. "Forward-looking disclosure and corporate reputation as mechanisms to reduce stock return volatility," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 122-131.
    21. Miihkinen, Antti, 2013. "The usefulness of firm risk disclosures under different firm riskiness, investor-interest, and market conditions: New evidence from Finland," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 312-331.

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