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Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

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  • Carlo Zappia

Abstract

The critical literature on Keynes has provided extensive analysis of why individual agents may find convenient to adopt a “conventional judgement”, and what he meant by “polite techniques” used to save their faces as “rational, economic men.” This paper concentrates instead on impolite techniques of thought suited to deal with Keynesian uncertainty. The paper suggests that the thread going from Keynes's Treatise on Probability to the General Theory and its defence provides a positive analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, and that placing emphasis on this positive analysis simply means adhering to Keynes's long-standing commitment to a (surely peculiar) probabilistic set-up.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Zappia, 2016. "Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 835-862, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:23:y:2016:i:5:p:835-862
    DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2015.1068349
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2018. "Ellsberg’s Decision Rules and Keynes’s Long-Term Expectations," Department of Economics University of Siena 777, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes's Methodology and the Analysis of Economic Agent Behavior in a Complex World," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Bélyácz, Iván, 2024. "A valószínűség mint döntési argumentum Keynes közgazdaságtanában [Probability as an argument of decision in Keynes economics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 86-107.
    4. Carlo Zappia, 2021. "Keynes's Treatise on Probability at 100 Years: Its Most Enduring Message," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-36, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

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