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Does Geopolitical Risk Matter? Evidence from South Korea

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  • Dong-Jin Pyo

Abstract

This study explores the impact of geopolitical events on the stock return behavior of inter-Korean economic cooperation-related firms depending on the North Korean regime. We document empirical evidence showing that cross-sectional stock return tends to react positively to positive geopolitical events under the current regime in North Korea (Kim Jong-un), whereas negative geopolitical events have limited impact. Conversely, we find that negative geopolitical events yielded more pronounced effects on the stock returns of related firms under the former regime (Kim Jong-il). In addition, this study investigates the role of geopolitical shock in the evolution of aggregate economic variables of South Korea using Caldara and Iacoviello’s (2018) geopolitical risk index. Geopolitical shock is found to yield no statistically meaningful impact on stock price index, industrial output, employment, or gross trade volume. Furthermore, aggregate stock market variables are found to be immune to geopolitical shock in South Korea. These results indicate that market participants estimate the escalation of geopolitical risk into full-scale war as unlikely.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong-Jin Pyo, 2021. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter? Evidence from South Korea," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 87-106, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:1:p:87-106
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1829937
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaobin, Guo & Ahmad, Khalil & Khan, Naqib Ullah, 2024. "Natural resources, geopolitical conflicts, and digital trade: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Chien-Liang Chiu & Paoyu Huang & Min-Yuh Day & Yensen Ni & Yuhsin Chen, 2024. "Mastery of “Monthly Effects”: Big Data Insights into Contrarian Strategies for DJI 30 and NDX 100 Stocks over a Two-Decade Period," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Tunali, 2022. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-03638273, HAL.
    4. Islam, Md. Monirul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Faroque, 2024. "Robot race in geopolitically risky environment: Exploring the Nexus between AI-powered tech industrial outputs and energy consumption in Singapore," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Demir, Ender & Long, Huaigang, 2022. "When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Evidence from a multiple and partial wavelet analysis on the impact of geopolitical concerns on stock markets in North-East Asian countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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