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Does Terrorism Increase after a Natural Disaster? An Analysis based upon Property Damage

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  • Jomon Aliyas Paul
  • Aniruddha Bagchi

Abstract

Does an emergency such as a natural disaster lead to a surge of terrorism? This paper contributes to the emerging literature on this issue. We consider the experience of 129 countries during the period 1998–2012 to determine the effect of a natural disaster on both domestic as well as transnational terrorism. We also control for endogeneity using expenditure on health care and land area in a country as instruments. In contrast to the existing literature, we measure the extent of terrorism by the value of property damage. The results indicate that after natural disasters, (a) transnational terrorism increases with a lag, and (b) a statistically significant impact on domestic terrorism is not observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jomon Aliyas Paul & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2018. "Does Terrorism Increase after a Natural Disaster? An Analysis based upon Property Damage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 407-439, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:4:p:407-439
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1204169
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Antonis & Tsavou, Evi, 2022. "Do natural disasters fuel terrorism? The role of state capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Mathews, Timothy & Paul, Jomon A., 2022. "Natural disasters and their impact on cooperation against a common enemy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1417-1428.
    3. Sachin Modgil & Rohit Kumar Singh & Cyril Foropon, 2022. "Quality management in humanitarian operations and disaster relief management: a review and future research directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1045-1098, December.
    4. Adesoji Adelaja & Justin George & Takashi Miyahara & Eva Penar, 2019. "Food Insecurity and Terrorism," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 475-497.

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