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Conflict and fiscal capacity

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  • Abdur R. Chowdhury
  • Syed Mansoob Murshed

Abstract

We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with violent contestation over a rent or prize. Our dynamic panel empirical analysis applied to 79 developing countries, during 1980–2010, indicates that war, especially civil war, retards fiscal capacity, along with imperfect democracy, political repression, poor governance, and dependence on oil and macroeconomic mismanagement. High intensity conflict is particularly destructive of state capacity. In countries experiencing low intensity wars, other institutional factors may matter more than war. The diminution of fiscal capacity due to war appears less pronounced after the end of the cold war.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdur R. Chowdhury & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2016. "Conflict and fiscal capacity," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 583-608, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:583-608
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.948700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (II): Distribution," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 2, number mill1848-2.
    2. Abdur Chowdhury, 2001. "The Impact of Financial Reform on Private Savings in Bangladesh," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (III): Exchange," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 3, number mill1848-3.
    4. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (I): Production," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 1, number mill1848-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 53, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2023. "Freedom through taxation: the effect of fiscal capacity on the rule of law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 69-90, August.
    3. Diana Ricciulli, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 18537, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Jose L. Diaz‐Sanchez & Abrams M. E. Tagem & Joana Mota, 2022. "Tax revenue effort and aid in fragile states: The case of Comoros," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 175-195, June.
    5. Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
    6. Colin O'Reilly & Ryan H. Murphy, 2022. "An Index Measuring State Capacity, 1789–2018," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 713-745, July.
    7. Artem Kochnev, 2021. "Marching to Good Laws: The Impact of War, Politics, and International Credit on Reforms in Ukraine," wiiw Working Papers 192, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Tamisai Chipunza & Senia Nhamo, 2023. "Fiscal capacity and public health expenditure in Zimbabwe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2175459-217, December.

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