IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v25y2014i2p97-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting Problems in Military Expenditure Data Using Digital Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bernhard Rauch
  • Max G�ttsche
  • Stephan Langenegger

Abstract

The UN asks governments to report key figures of their annual military budgets with the aim of creating trust among member states. This goal can only be achieved if the data reported is accurate. However, although there are many reasons for governments to falsify data, the UN does not check for manipulation. In this paper, we apply Benford's law to the military expenditure data of 27 states taken from the UN register. Our analysis of the first digits shows that the states with the greatest deviations from the expected Benford distribution and therefore the lowest data quality are the USA and the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Rauch & Max G�ttsche & Stephan Langenegger, 2014. "Detecting Problems in Military Expenditure Data Using Digital Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 97-111, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:97-111
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763438
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10242694.2013.763438?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deckert, Joseph & Myagkov, Mikhail & Ordeshook, Peter C., 2011. "Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 245-268, July.
    2. Jyrki Niskanen & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "Earnings cosmetics in a tax-driven accounting environment: evidence from Finnish public firms," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 443-452.
    3. De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
    4. Beber, Bernd & Scacco, Alexandra, 2012. "What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 211-234, April.
    5. Walter Krämer, 2011. "The Cult of Statistical Significance – What Economists Should and Should Not Do to Make their Data Talk," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 131(3), pages 455-468.
    6. David Giles, 2007. "Benford's law and naturally occurring prices in certain ebaY auctions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 157-161.
    7. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:397-401 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Diekmann Andreas & Jann Ben, 2010. "Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection: Facts and Legends," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 397-401, August.
    9. Rauch Bernhard & Göttsche Max & Engel Stefan & Brähler Gernot, 2011. "Fact and Fiction in EU-Governmental Economic Data," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 243-255, August.
    10. Tom Van Caneghem, 2004. "The impact of audit quality on earnings rounding-up behaviour: some UK evidence," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 771-786.
    11. Andreas Diekmann, 2007. "Not the First Digit! Using Benford's Law to Detect Fraudulent Scientif ic Data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 321-329.
    12. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    13. Christoph Watrin & Ralf Struffert & Robert Ullmann, 2008. "Benford’s Law: an instrument for selecting tax audit targets?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 219-237, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rabeea Sadaf, 2017. "Advanced Statistical Techniques For Testing Benford'S Law," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 229-238, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dlugosz, Stephan & Müller-Funk, Ulrich, 2012. "Ziffernanalyse zur Betrugserkennung in Finanzverwaltungen: Prüfung von Kassenbelegen," Arbeitsberichte des Instituts für Wirtschaftsinformatik 133, University of Münster, Department of Information Systems.
    2. Vadim S. Balashov & Yuxing Yan & Xiaodi Zhu, 2020. "Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law," Papers 2007.14841, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    3. Horton, Joanne & Krishna Kumar, Dhanya & Wood, Anthony, 2020. "Detecting academic fraud using Benford law: The case of Professor James Hunton," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(8).
    4. Bernhard Rauch & Max Göttsche & Gernot Brähler & Stefan Engel, 2011. "Fact and Fiction in EU‐Governmental Economic Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 243-255, August.
    5. Parnes, Dror, 2022. "Banks' off-balance sheet manipulations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 314-331.
    6. Theoharry Grammatikos & Nikolaos I. Papanikolaou, 2021. "Applying Benford’s Law to Detect Accounting Data Manipulation in the Banking Industry," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 115-142, April.
    7. Montag, Josef, 2017. "Identifying odometer fraud in used car market data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 10-23.
    8. Montag, Josef, 2015. "Identifying Odometer Fraud: Evidence from the Used Car Market in the Czech Republic," MPRA Paper 65182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    10. Dominique Geyer & Christoph Drechsler, 2014. "Detecting Cosmetic Debt Management Using Benford's Law," Post-Print hal-01059758, HAL.
    11. Faraji Kasidi & H. Chaturvedi & Rahul Singh, 2010. "Detecting Data Error and Inaccuracy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(4), pages 405-425, November.
    12. David E. Giles, 2012. "Exact Asymptotic Goodness-of-Fit Testing For Discrete Circular Data, With Applications," Econometrics Working Papers 1201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    13. Aineas Kostas Mallios, 2023. "Manipulation in reported dividends: Empirical evidence from US banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 441-461.
    14. Sitsofe Tsagbey & Miguel de Carvalho & Garritt L. Page, 2017. "All Data are Wrong, but Some are Useful? Advocating the Need for Data Auditing," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(3), pages 231-235, July.
    15. Kalaichelvan, Mohandass & Lim Kai Jie, Shawn, 2012. "A Critical Evaluation of the Significance of Round Numbers in European Equity Markets in Light of the Predictions from Benford’s Law," MPRA Paper 40960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. El Mouaaouy Florian & Riepe Jan, 2018. "Benford and the Internal Capital Market: A Useful Indicator of Managerial Engagement," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 309-329, August.
    17. Bonache, Adrien & Moris, Karen, 2009. "Nonlinear and chaotic patterns in Japanese video game console sales and consequences for management control," MPRA Paper 18196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Florian El Mouaaouy & Jan Riepe, 2018. "Benford and the Internal Capital Market: A Useful Indicator of Managerial Engagement," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(3), pages 309-329, August.
    19. Arezzo, Maria Felice & Cerqueti, Roy, 2023. "A Benford’s Law view of inspections’ reasonability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    20. Druică, Elena & Oancea, Bogdan & Vâlsan, Călin, 2018. "Benford's law and the limits of digit analysis," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-82.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:97-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.