IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v11y2000i1p31-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The econometrics of arms races

Author

Listed:
  • Ron Smith
  • J. Paul Dunne
  • Eftychia Nikolaidou

Abstract

There is now a large empirical literature on estimating arms races. This paper surveys some of the econometric issues involved in estimating action-reaction models of such races. Starting from the traditional Richardson model, it examines issues of identification, specification, and the role of expectations and structural stability. This is done both for the case where the variables are stationary and where they may be I(1) and cointegrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Smith & J. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2000. "The econometrics of arms races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 31-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:31-43
    DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404937
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10430710008404937?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    2. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    3. Hans Rattinger, 1975. "Armaments, Detente, and Bureaucracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 19(4), pages 571-595, December.
    4. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    5. McGuire, Martin, 1977. "A Quantitative Study of the Strategic Arms Race in the Missile Age," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 328-339, August.
    6. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Defense Economics," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Quantitative Methods in Peace Research," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 35(4), pages 419-427, July.
    11. Desai, Meghnad & Blake, David, 1981. "Modelling the Ultimate Absurdity: A Comment on "A Quantitative Study of the Strategic Arms Race in the Missile Age."," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 629-632, November.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    13. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, September.
    14. Paul Levine & Ron Smith, 1997. "The arms trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(25), pages 336-370.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coram Alex & Noakes Lyle, 2010. "Super-Agents and the Problem of Controlling the Dynamics of Regional Arms Races," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-42, September.
    2. Fanny Coulomb & Jacques Fontanel, 2003. "Disarmament: A century of economic thought," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 193-208.
    3. Nadir Ocal, 2003. "Are the military expenditures of India and Pakistan external determinants for each other: An empirical investigation," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 141-149.
    4. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    5. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2008. "Six decades of the Israeli-Arab conflict: An assessment of the economic aspects," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 8-15, July.
    6. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    7. Carlos Seiglie, 2016. "Openness of the economy, terms of trade, and arms," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(3), pages 748-759, January.
    8. Abu-Qarn, Aamer S. & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2009. "On the dynamics of the Israeli-Arab arms race," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 931-943, August.
    9. Nusrate Aziz & M. Niaz Asadullah, 2017. "Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 47-68, January.
    10. Vasilis Zervos, 2011. "Conflict in Space," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    3. Ron Smith, 1999. "Unit roots and all that: the impact of time-series methods on macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 239-258.
    4. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    5. Paul Levine & Fotis Mouzakis & Ron Smith, 2000. "Arms export controls and emerging domestic producers," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 505-531.
    6. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    7. Kevin D. Hoover, 2020. "The Discovery of Long-Run Causal Order: A Preliminary Investigation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    9. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November.
    10. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    12. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    13. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    14. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    15. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    16. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    17. B. Faye & E. Le Fur & S. Prat, 2015. "Dynamics of fine wine and asset prices: evidence from short- and long-run co-movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3059-3077, June.
    18. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    19. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:31-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.