IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v28y2010i9p947-958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does debt structure matter? Estimating contractor default barrier by the down-and-out call option approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-lin Huang
  • Wei Lin

Abstract

The down-and-out call option approach was used to analyse contractor financial risk under shorter-term debt structures. The maximum likelihood method was applied to estimate contractor default barriers and probabilities implied by stock prices series and actual debt maturities calculated from historical debt data. Results indicate that the default barriers implied by shorter-term debt structures are higher than previous estimates using longer-term debt structures. Further regression analysis shows that implied barriers do not reflect the full effects of asset quality in ameliorating financial distress. Hence, the implied default barriers tend to be higher than the actual default barriers. When applying the DOC approach, if the implied barrier is not calibrated to reflect the borrower's asset quality, the barrier will tend to overestimate default probability. This has important implications on contractor financial risk monitoring, security pricing and short-term financial planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-lin Huang & Wei Lin, 2010. "Does debt structure matter? Estimating contractor default barrier by the down-and-out call option approach," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 947-958.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:28:y:2010:i:9:p:947-958
    DOI: 10.1080/01446191003762264
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446191003762264
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446191003762264?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brooks,Chris, 2019. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108436823, January.
    2. Alice C Lee & John C Lee & Cheng F Lee, 2009. "Financial Analysis, Planning and Forecasting:Theory and Application," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6416, February.
    3. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 1998. "Credit Risk and Risk Neutral Default Probabilities: Information About Migrations and Defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7dm2d31p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eleodor-Alin MIHAI & Corina-Florentina SCARLAT (MIHAI), 2020. "Econometric Models for Quantifying the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Configuration of Banking Assets and Liabilities," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(22), pages 64-80, November.
    2. Preeti Sharma & Priyanka Panday & R. C. Dangwal, 2020. "Determinants of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) disclosure: a study of Indian companies," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(4), pages 208-217, December.
    3. Evangelos Vasileiou, 2022. "Inaccurate Value at Risk Estimations: Bad Modeling or Inappropriate Data?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 1155-1171, March.
    4. Kanak Patel & Ricardo Pereira, 2007. "Expected Default Probabilities in Structural Models: Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 107-133, January.
    5. Tuna, Gulcay & Almahadin, Hamed Ahmad, 2021. "Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Natalia Porto & Matías Ciaschi, 2021. "Reformulating the tourism-extended environmental Kuznets curve: A quantile regression analysis under environmental legal conditions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 991-1014, August.
    7. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    8. Michele Azzone & Roberto Baviera & Pietro Manzoni, 2024. "The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread," Papers 2405.12982, arXiv.org.
    9. Shobande, Olatunji A. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "The Critical Role of Education and ICT in Promoting Environmental Sustainability in Eastern and Southern Africa: A Panel VAR Approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Adefemi A. OBALADE & Akona TSHUTSHA & Lungelo MVUYANA & Nothando NDLOVU & Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI, 2022. "Are Frontier African Markets Inefficient or Adaptive? Application of Rolling GARCH Models," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 6(1), pages 19-35.
    11. Ion Santra, 2022. "Effect of tax dynamics on linearly growing processes under stochastic resetting: a possible economic model," Papers 2202.13713, arXiv.org.
    12. Bystrom, Hans & Kwon, Oh Kang, 2007. "A simple continuous measure of credit risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 508-523.
    13. Gunay, Samet, 2020. "Seeking causality between liquidity risk and credit risk: TED-OIS spreads and CDS indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Edson VENGESAI & Adefemi A. OBALADE & Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI, 2021. "Country Risk Dynamics and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from the JSE Cross-Sector Analysis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 5(2), pages 63-84.
    15. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2011. "The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 876-885, April.
    16. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Maltritz, Dominik, 2008. "Modelling the dependency between currency and debt crises: An option based approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 344-347, September.
    18. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    19. Perraudin, William & Taylor, Alex P., 2004. "On the consistency of ratings and bond market yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2769-2788, November.
    20. Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2003. "Sovereign risk in a structural approach: Evaluating sovereign ability-to-pay and probability of default," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:28:y:2010:i:9:p:947-958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.