Linkage Theory and Autocratic Regime-Survival Strategies in a Post-Liberal Order: The Case of Authoritarian Middle Power Turkey (2013–2022)

At a time of authoritarian drift in many parts of the world characterizing a post-liberal order, this paper aims to contribute emerging literature on how domestic and international factors interact in shaping the foreign policy preferences of middle powers in this new epoch. Hinging on a synthesis of linkage and regime survival theories, the article argues that as the ‘inner-directed linkage’ of the West to those authoritarian regimes weakens, those regimes’ ‘outer-directed linkage’ with emerging Asian authoritarian centres strengthens. Having been ruled for more than 20 years by authoritarian leader Erdoğan of the JDP (Justice and Development Party), Turkey is an interesting case as an authoritarian middle power with its incrementally intensifying ties with Russia and China. Drawing on the Erdoğan regime’s statements and acts departing from the liberal order, especially after the Gezi Park protests in 2013 and the failed coup attempt in 2016, the article concludes that Turkey has recalibrated its domestic and foreign policy, replacing its Europhilism with Eurasianism as a part of his regime survival strategy.